In a generally very positive first 100 days or so of the Biden Presidency, Joe Manchin ranks right up there with the most frustrating aspects of this Presidency so far.
Trivia question: What could be worse than the obstruction of Joe Biden’s agenda by Joe Manchin?
Answer: TWO Republican Senators from West Virginia.
Manchin appears to be pretty drunk with the perceived sway he holds over his party since the Democrats only have a 50-50 split in the Senate. Without him, however, they would not even have that 50-50 “majority” and therefore would not control the committees and would not have been able to even dream about passing anything else using Reconciliation. So the Democrats are stuck trying to work with him.
There is no way that Manchin could possibly believe that any Democratic legislation will ever get any Republican support. Hell, if Manchin and Republican Pat Toomey couldn’t even get enough Republican support to pass their tepid, background check expansion only gun control amendment back in 2013, then he must know that nothing will ever get any Republican support now.
The best scenario for Senate Democrats would be to do what they need to in order to mollify Manchin for the present and to pass a non-watered down infrastructure bill via Reconciliation. Even if they are unable to pass anything else, with that and hopefully also with success against the pandemic and the passing of the Covid Relief bill, the Democrats should have a decent chance of retaining control of the House and also increasing their majority in the Senate in 2022. If they increase their majority in the Senate, that would significantly diminish the need to cave to any more of Manchin’s whims.
I know that my belief flies in the face of conventional wisdom that says that the first midterm after a new President’s election usually sees significant losses in Congress for the President’s party. But I think that the Senate, in particular, has the Democrats in a particularly good position. They are only defending 14 Senate seats in 2022, whereas the Republicans are defending 20.
Now if the Democrats can also somehow pass a version of the Voting Rights Bill (aka the For the People Act), that certainly would make a huge difference. There are so many state voter suppression bills pending that federal Voting Rights legislation seems like the only way to put the brakes on them. Plus, forcing all House reapportionment to be done by an independent commission, instead of by hyper partisan legislatures, would be HUGE.
Forcing all states to reapportion based upon the recommendations of an independent commission is a major component of the For the People Act. Even if the Democrats could make an exception to the Reconciliation requirements and pass a For the People Act that only included the independent commission requirement as well as a few baseline minimum requirements for voting by mail, and for access to voting locations, that would be a major win for Democracy and, as a result, for Democrats as well.
For the present, let’s see what happens with the infrastructure bill. If a bill can be passed that is substantial, and which retains the support of a significant majority of the American voting public, then that should set the table to at least provide an opportunity for the Democrats to be creative in passing other legislation.
What is absolutely clear is that there will be virtually no support for ANY Democratic legislation by Republicans in either the House or in the Senate. We know that the House, even with their almost equally slim majority, can pass pretty much whatever legislation they want to. Say what you will about Pelosi, but she can definitely get things passed in the House. The big question is how things will get through the Senate.
The ball really is in Chuck Schumer’s court. He has to first figure out, and then he has to convince the Democratic Senate, how to pass things that have bipartisan support … with the American public, since he will never be able to do anything which will receive any bipartisan support in the Senate. That means that he is going to have to find a way to convince Manchin to play ball.
I think one way to do this will be to first bring things up for a vote in the Senate that have significant support with the American public. Make the Republican Senators at least go on the record as voting against things like the end of Gerrymandering, or for expanding background checks, or for making Election Day a national holiday.
Then turn right around and pass the things with a 51 vote margin and state clearly that the Democrats tried to be bipartisan but that the Republicans were never interested in that at any time. We will also see then how comfortable Joe Manchin will be if he ends up being in the position of possibly casting the only Democratic No vote on something that has the solid support of the American public.
Oh, and when those 2022 midterms come around, be sure to make those Republicans absolutely choke on every one of those No votes.
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